Voice and Exit: How Emerging Powers are Promoting Institutional Changes in the International Monetary System

Camila Villard Duran

Resumo


In the aftermath of the 2008 crisis, emerging powers engaged in political and legal strategies to challenge the actual framework for global monetary governance. This article examines two categories of monetary strategies designed as “voice” and “exit” plans (Hirschman 1970). For the former, they aimed at gaining more participation inside the International Monetary Fund (IMF). For the latter, strategies were built as legal alternatives to manage future liquidity crises outside the current framework. Using this theoretical classification, this paper identifies institutional responses formulated by the G20 emerging powers in Asia and Latin America after 2008 crisis. The specific approach proposed by this article is to analyse how the legal framework for the management of international money influences their strategies’ design and outcomes. Up to present, it seems voice strategies are promoting only incremental modifications in institutions. Exit strategies, however, have the potential of being more successful. These strategies have been built as a network of bilateral swap contracts between central banks. Asian powers are more engaged in this type of legal strategy. Latin American countries tend to be recipients of these plans. Exit strategies, however, are moving multilateral cooperation away from the IMF, reinforcing institutional fragmentation and uncertainty on how the next liquidity crises would be managed.

Palavras-chave


international monetary system, international monetary architecture, International Monetary Fund (IMF), international money, central bank swaps

Texto completo:

PDF (English)

Referências


AIZENMAN, P. Selective swap arrangements and the global financial crisis: analysis and interpretation, International Review of Economics and Finance 19 (3), 2010.

ALLEN, W., MOESSNER, R. Central bank co-operation and international liquidity in the financial crisis of 2008-9”, LSE Financial Markets Group Paper series 187, 2010.

BERNES, T. A., Jenkins, P., Mehrling, P., Neilson, D. China’s engagement with an evolving international monetary system, CIGI special report, 2015. Available at: https://www.cigionline.org/sites/default/files/china_engagement_cigi-inet_special_report_web_0.pdf.Last accessed 10 April 2018.

ARMIJO, L. E., KATADA, S. N. Theorizing the financial statecraft of emerging powers, New Political Economy 20 (1), 2015.

BOUGHTON, J. M. Silent Revolution: The International Monetary Fund, 1979– 1989, International Monetary Fund, Washington DC, 2010.

BROZ, J. L. The Politics of Rescuing the World’s Financial System: The Federal Reserve as a Global Lender of Last Resort, San Diego: University of California, 2014.

CARREAU, D. Le système monétaire international privé (UEM et euromarchés), 274 Recueil des Cours 309, 1998.

___. Souverainété monétaire et utilisation de la monnaie par les opérateurs privés. In Kahn (org.), Droit et monnaie: Etats et espace monétaire international, CREDIMI, Litec : Dijon, 1988.

COHEN, B. J. The geography of money, Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1998. ___. The Future of Sterling as an International Currency, Macmillan: London, 1971.

COHEN, B. J., BENNEY, T. M. What does the international currency system really look like?, Review of International Political Economy v. 21, n.5, 2014.

de VRIES, M. G., HORSEFIELD, J.K. The International Monetary Fund, 1945-1965: Twenty Years of International Monetary Cooperation, Volume II: Analysis, International Monetary Fund, Washington DC, 1969. de VRIES, M. G. The International Monetary Fund, 1966-1971: The System Under Stress, Volume I: Narrative, International Monetary Fund, Washington DC, 1976.

____. The International Monetary Fund, 1972-1978, Volume I: Narrative and Analysis, International Monetary Fund, Washington DC, 1985.

DESTAIS, C. Central Bank Currency Swaps and the International Monetary System, Policy brief CEPII, Sep, 2014. Available at: http://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/publications/pb/abstract.asp?NoDoc=7203. Last accessed 10 April 2018.

DURAN, C. V. The international lender of last resort for emerging countries: a bilateral currency swap?, GEG working paper, n. 108, University of Oxford, 2015a. Available at: https://www.geg.ox.ac.uk/sites/geg/files/documents/WP_108%20-%20The%20International%20Lender%20of%20Last%20Resort%20for%20Emerging%20Countries%20-%20Camila%20Duran. pdf. Last accessed 10 April 2018.

____. Avoiding the next liquidity crunch: how the G20 must support monetary cooperation to increase resi¬lience to crisis, GEG / BSG policy brief, University of Oxford, October, 2015b. Available at: http://www. geg.ox.ac.uk/avoiding-next-liquidity-crunch-how-g20-must-support-monetary-cooperation-increase-resilien¬ce-crisis. Last accessed 10 April 2018.

EICHENGREEN, B. Exorbitant privilege: the rise and the fall of the dollar and the future of the Internatio¬nal Monetary System, Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2011.

GOLD, Sir J. Development of the SDR as reserve as¬set, unit of account and denominator: a survey, 16 Geo. Wash. J. Int’L. & Econ. 1, 1981.

GRIMES, W. W. The Asian Monetary Fund reborn? Implications of Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateraliza¬tion, Asia Policy 11, 2011.

HELLEINER, Eric. The Status Quo Crisis: Global Fi¬nancial Governance after the 2008 Crisis, Oxford: Ox¬ford University Press, 2014.

HIRSCHMAN, A. O. Exit, voice, and loyalty: Respon¬ses to decline in firms, organizations, and states. Cam¬bridge: Harvard University Press, 1970.

IEO – Independent Evaluation Office of the Interna¬tional Monetary Fund. IMF response to the financial and eco¬nomic crisis: evaluation report. Washington DC: IMF, 2014. Available at: http://www.ieo-imf.org/ieo/pages/Eva¬luationImages227.aspx. Last accessed 10 April 2018.

IMF – International Monetary Fund. Review on flexible credit line, the precautionary and liquidity line, and the rapid financing instrument, IMF Policy Paper, Washing¬ton DC, 2014. Available at: https://www.imf.org/ en/Publications/Policy-Papers/Issues/2016/12/31/ Review-of-the-Flexible-Credit-Line-the-Precautionary-and-Liquidity-Line-and-the-Rapid-PP4846. Last ac¬cessed 10 April 2018.

___. Review of the method of valuation of the SDR – initial considerations, IMF Policy Paper, August 3, 2015. Available at: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/ Policy-Papers/Issues/2016/12/31/Review-of-the-Me¬thod-of-Valuation-of-the-SDR-Initial-Considerations-PP4975. Last accessed 10 April 2018.

JAMES, H. International Monetary Cooperation Since Bretton Woods, Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1996.

KEYNES, J. M. Proposals for an International Clearing Union (Keynes Plan). In: HORSEFIELD, J. K. (ed.), The International Monetary Fund 1945-1965, vol. III: Documents, IMF, Washington, (1969 [1943]).

KINDLEBERGER, C. The World in Depression, Ber¬keley: University of California Press, 1973.

___. International money: a collection of essays, Lon¬don-Boston: Allen & Unwin, 1981.

KINDLEBERGER, C., ALIBER, Z. R. Manias, panics, and crashes: a history of financial crises. New York: Pal¬grave Macmillan, 2011 [1978].

LASTRA, R. M. International and financial law, Oxford University Press, Oxford, 2015.

LANDAU, J. P. Global liquidity: public and private. In Global dimensions of unconventional monetary policy, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Jackson Hole symposium, 2013.

LELART, M. Le système de l’écu privé: comment as t-il fonctionné, comment aurait-il prévaluer ?, Revue d’Eco¬nomie Financière 113, 2013.

LUBIN, D. China and the SDR: a big change in 2015?, Emerging Markets Macro View, Citi Research Economics, March, 2015.

MERHLING, P. Elasticity and discipline in the global swap network, working paper for the conference ‘China and the global financial system’, Shangai Development Research Foundation, August, 2015. Available at: https://www. ineteconomics.org/uploads/papers/WP27-Mehrling. pdf. Last accessed 10 April 2018.

MCDOWELL, D. The US as ‘sovereign international last-resort lender’: the Fed’s currency swap programme during the great panic of 2007-2009, New Political Eco¬nomy, v. 17, n. 2, 2012.

___. The emergent international liquidity network: cen¬tral bank cooperation after the global financial crisis”, working paper presented at the 2015 ISA annual conference.

MCKINNON, R. The Rules of the Game: Internatio¬nal Money in Historical Perspective, Journal of Economic Literature 31, 1993.

___. The Eurocurrency market, Essays on International Finance, n. 125, Princeton University, 19___. Private and official international money: the case for the dollar, Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1969.

MOESSNER, R., Allen, W. Banking crises and the international monetary system in the Great Depression and now, BIS working paper 333, 2010. Available at: https://www.bis.org/publ/work333.htm. Last accessed 10 April 2018.

MOHAN, R., KAPUR, M. Emerging powers and global governance: whither the IMF?, IMF working paper 15/219, 2015. Available at: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2015/wp15219.pdf. Last accessed 10 April 2018.

MORSE, J. C., KEOHANE, R. O. Contested Multilateralism. The Review of International Organizations v. 9, n. 4, 2014.

NUSSBAUM, A. A note on the idea of world money, Political Science Quartely, v. 64, n. 3, 1949.

OBSTFELD, M. The SDR as an international reserve asset: what future?, International Growth Centre, Rapid Response 11/0885, 2011.

SUSSANGKARN, C. Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralization: origin, development, and outlook, Asian Economic Policy Review 6, 2011.

VISSOL, T. Les monnaies composites: innovation financière, innovation monétaire. In Kahn (org.), Droit et monnaie: Etats et espace monétaire international, CREDIMI, Dijon: Litec, 1998.

XIAOCHUAN, Z. IMFC Statement by the Honorable Zhou Xiaochuan Governor of the IMF for China to the Thirty-First Meeting April 18, 2015. Available at: https://www.imf. org/External/spring/2015/imfc/statement/eng/chn. pdf. Last accessed 10 April 2018.

___. Reform the international monetary system, BIS, 23 March, 2009. Available at: https://www.bis.org/review/r090402c.pdf. Last accessed 10 April 2018.77.




DOI: https://doi.org/10.5102/rdi.v15i1.4903

ISSN 2236-997X (impresso) - ISSN 2237-1036 (on-line)

Desenvolvido por:

Logomarca da Lepidus Tecnologia